Is Obama Concerned About Destabilizing Pakistan?

In a softball interview with MSNBC's Chris Matthews, Barack Obama twice repeated his earlier threats to attack Al Qaeda inside Pakistan on receipt of actionable intelligence with or without Pakistan's permission, exhibiting little concern over worries that his earlier remarks to the same effect may have contributed to a part of the recent instability in Pakistan.  Regardless of the arguable wisdom of the underlying policy, Obama's statements raise the question of why he continues to so publicly declare an intention that might best be communicated privately by diplomatic channels.

Obama's bellicose remarks came only days after he declarad his intention to "return to the traditional bipartisan realistic policy of George Bush's father, of John F. Kennedy, of, in some ways, Ronald Reagan."

All three of the Presidents named were fierce Cold Warriors.  The two Republicans Obama named as exemplars, Bush and Reagan, brought massive unnecessary military spending and an international image based on military bluster to the Oval Office.  Both Republican Presidents waged discretionary wars of conquest (in Panama and Grenada), provided financial, military, and covert aid to right-wing dictators in Central America, and stopped U.S. payment of U.N. dues.  Theirs was an attitude of distrust toward international institutions and disrespect for the rule of international law, and their National Security Council was the warm breeding ground of the modern neo-conservative movement, producing functionaries such as Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, and Paul Wolfowitz.

Speaking to MSNBC's yellow-bird-like commentator last night, Obama said we shouldn't establish permanent bases in Iraq because

we should be focused on finishing the war that needs to be won against al Qaeda in their home bases in Afghanistan and in the hills of Pakistan, where we know that they are planning to attack U.S. targets.

If Matthews had been prepared, he would've asked Obama if he knew that Musharraf had used Obama's previous threat to attack Al Qaeda inside Pakistan without Musharraf's consent as one of the initial excuses to prepare the ground for his later declaration of a state of emergency:

Political turmoil in Pakistan deepened Thursday when the government raised the possibility that embattled President Gen. Pervez Musharraf might impose a state of emergency, drawing condemnation that doing so would be a desperate bid to hold onto power.

Tariq Azim, the minister for state information, said a state of emergency could not be ruled out because of "external and internal threats" and deteriorating security in Pakistan's volatile northwest near the Afghan border.

Azim also said talk from the United States about the possibility of U.S. military action against al-Qaida in Pakistan "has started alarm bells ringing and has upset the Pakistani public." He mentioned Democratic presidential hopeful Barak Obama by name as an example of someone who made such comments, saying his recent remarks were one reason the government was debating a state of emergency.

It's hard to blame Obama for Musharraf's initial reaction, although Clinton and Dodd each presciently reacted at the time of the statement by suggesting that Obama's words could destabilize Pakistan.  It's a little harder, in my view, to let him off the hook for saying it again.  The more lenient explanation is that he is simply unaware of the consequences of his earlier statement, because the alternative looks like a reckless disregard for consequences.

Instead of asking Obama how he thought his words were being heard iPakistan, Matthews asked Obama a vaguely-worded question about the cost of the war--exactly what Obama had been talking about just before launching into the Pakistan bit.  Instead of questioner, Matthews played the role of human place-marker.

Later, just in case anybody in Islamabad might've missed his meaning the first time, Obama said:

And what I have said repeatedly is, for example, I won't hesitate to strike against al Qaeda bases and high-value targets.  If Pakistan is not willing to act, and we have our sights on somebody, we should go after them.  I was sharply criticized for that, both by John McCain, Hillary Clinton, and George Bush, except it turned out that, three weeks ago, we had one of our most successful strikes against one of the highest-ranking al Qaeda leaders doing precisely that.

Matthews didn't follow up on that statement, either.



Display:


Let's not gloss... (2.00 / 1)

Over the reality that Kennedy was also much like Reagan and Bush. He pretty much escalated the Vietnam War.

And let's not forget all President's have their entanglements. I don't agree with most of them but cherry-picking is pretty funny.

President Clinton was terrible in Somalia, decent in Bosnia, failed to address Rwanda and, while he cut Military Spending 30%, escalated the horrendous program of Rendition.

So I think you're whitewashing history.

As for Pakistan, I've always favored tactical strikes over an occupying force. That's what I congratulate President Clinton on. If Senator Obama follows in those footsteps, he can't really do any wrong.

And you can't forget Lee Hamilton just endorsed this initiative and this plan. The CIA just endorsed it as well, three weeks ago, when they used it with amazing success.

I think this is a non-issue that few people will understand and it has the potential to be blown out of proportion with comments like "He wants to bomb Pakistan".

That's a disservice to a discussion that requires a decent look at history, understanding blowback, understanding the local populace and realizing this can't be easily summarized.

I endorse his plan. I endorse Realism. I also endorse reintroducing ourselves to the world in a manner that, from the beginning - January 20th, 2009, in this instance - says the past eight years were a tragedy and the United States of America will reassess and reintegrate into the world stage in a manner that befits a Super Power that will soon compete with the EU and Communist China.

My take on it.


by Sir Hadrian on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:00:17 AM EST

Re: Let's not gloss... (2.00 / 1)

Very cogent and mature commentary, especially  on the potential for misunderstanding Obama's intention.  Don't mean to quibble but I wonder what would have happened if we had leveraged the Europeans a bit sooner or acted ourselves in Bosnia before the worst of the violence.


by Shaun Appleby on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 05:14:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It is reckless (none / 0)

It may be fine to take out Al Quaeda camps...just dont talk about it on TV.

I do not have any major issues with Sen. Obama's plan to take out Al Quaeda targets.  I do think he should quit talking about it ~ he is being incredibly reckless.

As to actually attacking Al Quaeda targets ~ you have to keep in mind that Pakistan is already quite unstable, and additional instability works to Al Quaeda's advantage.  Beyond a certain point, air strikes will become counterproductive.

I agree that few people will understand this, it is now, however, a non-issue.


If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi
by SevenStrings on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 10:00:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It is reckless (none / 0)

"I do not have any major issues with Sen. Obama's plan to take out Al Quaeda targets.  I do think he should quit talking about it ~ he is being incredibly reckless."

I do.

With all due respect, I think he, and his advisers, are talking out their ass, and with each utterance show they have no intrinsic, or even intuitive knowledge, or even any real grasp of the outstanding dynamic, and the greater workings of the internal mechanisms that determine ALL Middle East actions on a day to day basis.

And that's too bad, because somebody, even people who are supposed to be on your  side, is always waiting for you to screw up, so they can pounce.

And it's only United States world strategic position, really, anyone can do it, right?

Astroturf,do0ds...!


by Marsha1 on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 10:20:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It is reckless (none / 0)

First of all, Pakistan is not in the Middle East.  Pakistan is considered to be part of South East Asia, or alternatively, in the Indian Subcontinent.  The middle east and the indian subcontinent are entirely different places.. in all respects.

What major issues do you have if the US drops a bomb or two in Pakistan ... specially if noone talks about it ?


If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi
by SevenStrings on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 12:33:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Concerned About Destabilizing (none / 0)

So if we know where terrorist camps are or have concrete intelligence on where Bin Laden is hiding we should just sit back till it festers into another Afghanistan?

nice policy there sparky!

Second, the idea that it is Obama's fault for the instability in that area then I pretty much heard everything in the book.  This is really getting ridiculous.  As an Indian American I take great offense that this is somehow Obama's fault.  The tribal factions in that country have no national loyalty whatsoever.  They believe in Sharia Law and there is no national campaign to reduce their influence.  Bin Laden's hold in the area is causing a major problem and the fact that the ineptitude of Musharaff is partially to blame.  He doesn't have the gonads to force a full military action against Waziristan and the fact on why he hasn't developed a democratic process in Pakistan is because he hasn't been pressured from Washington to do so.

/Obama is right on this


My dream is Hillary will sponser a joint resolution to authorize the use of the United States Armed Forces against Trinity Church
by denounceandreject on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:02:14 AM EST

On Pakistan (none / 0)

I have to agree. Destabilizing a region that's already destabilized - I mean, they can't agree on borders - is ludicrous. Both Senators Dodd and Clinton were playing politics with the issue, easily to see by the fact that Senator Dodd has endorsed Senator Obama.

And I imagine, as soon as Senator Obama wins - if he wins - you'll see Senator Clinton realign with this thought. You have to remember Senator Clinton endorsed the use of Military Force in a region that everyone knew would be the absolute worst place to have an occupying force for an extended period of time, outside of Saudi Arabia, so I think she's being facetious on this particular qualm of hers.

I cannot, at the moment, ascertain if Senator Obama is playing "chickenhawk" to appeal to Independents who lean Republican or if he truly believes Realism or that tactical strikes are a very essential part.

Again, it's attacking someone who hasn't attacked you... yet. So, I have issue with it, of course. I'm very anti-war, but again, my main issue is getting the fuck out of Iraq and reintroducing ourselves.

Again - a difficult issue to parse or even come to a conclusion on.


by Sir Hadrian on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:07:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Pakistan (none / 0)

It's not the matter of the use of force.  Of course all Presidents have the authority, and should very well be prepared, to use force when necessary under the circumstances.

It's amateurish and counter-productive to announce it in advance, especially when it is to the political embarrassment of a government with which we have an extremely ticklish relationship. With Musharraf's seat in power very much in question, and given the tribalistic nature of humans everywhere, he could scarcely stand by politically to this external saber-rattling and disrespect for his government without demonstrating some sort of strong reaction.  What that reaction might be is a question that simply cannot be answered at the time of a speech, which is why you just shouldn't say saber-rattling words unless, for some reason, you have to.  

Words indeed matter in international relations.  What if George Bush never said the words "Axis of Evil?"  It was those words that eventually locked him into the war with Iraq, because his base took them as a promise.  


by Trickster on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:34:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Pakistan (none / 0)

It's not amateurish or counter-productive. It's substantive and appeals to those who want to know whether or not Senator Obama has the balls to play on the world stage. Compared to Senator Clinton's "Thatcherites" as Stephen Colbert calls them ^_^, I think he's much more calmer, reserved and has better judgment.

See his speech on pretty much deducting what would happen in Iraq.

I'll take his word for it, since he's been pretty much right on everything concerning Foreign Policy, he's been endorsed by those whose foreign policies have been good, the CIA has endorsed it, used it with success and yadda yadda.

Everything else is inconsequential.

If anything, Senator Obama enjoys amazing popularity in the Middle East and his saber-rattling towards Musharaf will give the civilian populace the strength to know the incoming U.S. government will not obstruct or support a petty dictator who removes judges who are doing their duty.

Let's not make up stuff about President Bush, either. The right on the wall for Iraq was in 1992 and 1998, when the plans were being drawn up by the Right-Wingers to restructure the Middle East. The Downing Street Memo - they wanted war and fabricated and propped up weak evidence to get there.

The Axis of Evil speech can't compare.

In this soundbyte age, both Senators Clinton and Obama have to dumb down their rhetoric for a populace that is largely comprised of not-so-intelligent people. IE, swing Republicans :).

He's doing his chickenhawk/warhawk routine - the only difference is, he didn't vote to send our soldiers to a death trap. And I imagine he won't.

Senator Clinton did it in the run-up to the Iraq War; the only difference, is it was very real and very disastrous and she's being hurt by it.


by Sir Hadrian on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:47:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Pakistan (none / 0)

writing on the wall*


by Sir Hadrian on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:48:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You missed my point (none / 0)

All I said about the underlying policy was that it's wisdom is "arguable," which position I'll stand on all day long.  There are arguments to be made for that policy, there are arguments to be made against.  It's trumpeting it in public that is a bad idea:

Regardless of the arguable wisdom of the underlying policy, Obama's statements raise the question of why he continues to so publicly declare an intention that might best be communicated privately by diplomatic channels.

As far as his words' contribution to instability, again you're misinterpreting me.  I didn't it's Obama's "fault" that there is instability in the area, I said there are "worries that his earlier remarks to the same effect may have contributed to a part of the recent instability in Pakistan."

With Musharraf's government publicly giving Obama's words as one of their excuses for imposing martial law, are you seriously saying there's no ground for worrying that such comments might contribute to part of the instability?  It's not like instability is an on-off switch--it exists in a million gradiets along a continuum.

It's a fact of history that the words of American governments have political effects abroad, at times profound.  It's not logical to assume that a superpower's threat of military attack within the borders of a foreign nation will pass over that nation like a cool breeze with no effect.


by Trickster on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:28:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You missed my point (none / 0)

No we need to make a clear indication to Musharaff he is not going to receive the 80 billion dollars of subsidies from us if he is not going to do is part of the bargain.  This should be a public policy and one that must be said repeatedly.  He did not impose martial law because of what Obama said, he imposed martial law because he didn't want the elections to proceed.  He has no interest in letting go of his power, especially when we are funding it and letting him do whatever he wants.  He is a dictator and should be treated like one.  He can fool regular folks by coming to America wearing his three-piece suit, going to talk shows, and flaunting his new book, but the guy is a coward and egomaniac who is supported by this government and he is not fooling anyone in the intelligence community. I just wished Obama went a little further with him; there is a large community in Pakistan who believes in democracy and hate Bin Laden with a passion.  If Pakistan needs to have a civil war to accomplish it, we must support it!

In a democracy, you must take positions that are not public friendly, and if we just sit back passively making back room deals like what we are doing in Iraq, then Pakistan will become the new Afghanistan.  We need a President who will tell the American public and the world the ramifications of the consequences of not supporting democratic policies without any hesitation, that is transparency, that is leadership.    


My dream is Hillary will sponser a joint resolution to authorize the use of the United States Armed Forces against Trinity Church
by denounceandreject on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:50:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

To me (none / 0)

It sounds like military bluster and brinksmanship.  No wonder he named three unreconstructed cold warriors as role models.

History says that aggressive statements of intent toward other nations have unexpected bad consequences.  I was brought up to believe that it's bad luck to piss in history's eye.


by Trickster on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:54:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: To me (none / 0)

I think you're missing the point.  We have a complex and continuing relationship with Pakistan but the situation has devolved steadily.  It is time we reassess that relationship, and I agree diplomacy is the first requirement.  But an unequivocal statement from Obama does three things, it puts the leadership of Pakistan on notice, it correctly identifies the real terrorist threat to us in the world and it re-establishes 'realism,' not nation-building nor cultural neo-colonialism as the driving ethos of his administration.


by Shaun Appleby on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary Clinton has the exact same policy (none / 0)

regarding Pakistan. She just doesn't think you deserve to here about how she'll position America as POTUS in advance.

Obama wasn't even his party's frontrunner when Musharraf declared the state of emergency its silly and a little arrogant to think his actions were somehow caused by Obama's huge sin of actually honestly laying out the only sensible foriegn policy position on the table.

Musharraf has been eclipsed and now the U.S. will pay the price for the Bush administration's support of him just like it does every time they prop up a dictator.


by DSloth on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:09:04 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton has the exact same policy (none / 0)

I didn't say he caused it.  I said he used it one of the initial excuses to prepare the ground for laying a state of emergency.  Which he did.  That concerns me and should concern Obama as well.

Listen.  Read what I wrote a little more closely, please.  You, denounceandreject, Jay R, and freedom78 have each one accused me of saying things that I didn't even come close to saying.

Obama's words were used as an excuse for the state of emergency, and the state of emergency had a terrible effect on Pakistani and regional stability.  I explicitly said that I didn't blame Obama for saying what he initially said, but that he should've realized and thought about how Musharraf was using his statements before saying it again.

You people are accusing me of blaming Obama for causing Pakistan's instability and of saying that we should promise not to use force in Pakistan, and really those things aren't even implied in my piece.  I took them into account, wrote about them, and expressed other concerns.  Please read more closely, and more fairly.

I apologize for dumping all this on you, but I don't want to say it to everybody over and over.  Now go and sin no more.  :)


by Trickster on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:44:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Concerned About Destabilizing Pakista (none / 0)

Musharraf is a military dictator.  He can always drum up an excuse for his actions.  Obama made his Pakistan statement back in August.  Do you really think that the threat of President Obama using military force SEVENTEEN months later was his real reason?

"OH NO!  Future President Obama might target terrorists here in seventeen months!  We better declare a state of emergency...you know...for practice!"

If Musharraf wants to crack down, he'll crack down, regardless of what a Presidential candidate says.


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:25:17 AM EST

Re: Is Obama Concerned About Destabilizing Pakista (none / 0)

Now Obama destabilized Pakistan?  You're a frakking idiot.  The Obama Derangement Syndrome around here is at a fever-pitch.

There are many reasons why Pakistan is destabilized at present, absolutely none of which have anything to do with the Democratic nomination.  Please try and avoid letting the bullshit run so rampant in the future KTHXBYE


by Jay R on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:30:57 AM EST

Re: Is Obama Concerned About Destabilizing Pakista (none / 0)

Not what I said.  Please play nice.


by Trickster on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:35:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama Concerned About Destabilizing Pakista (none / 0)

If that's not what you said, then perhaps it's time to change the title of this diary.  B/c that is what you imply to say the least.  Moreover, citing Musharaf's excuse is not a good way of demonstrating that what you mean to say is that it is inappropriate for Obama to announce this major foreign policy prescription.

But if you want to say that you disagree with his answering truthfully to a policy prescription, then me please retort.  I want a president who is willing to tell me where she or he will take our foreign policy.  For too long administrations of both parties have treated our citizenry like children.  Obama chooses to treat us like adults and states clearly what his policy positions are no matter the reaction to it from the media or the Democratic establishment.  Actions like these make me more sure that he will do perform other foreign policies like he is promising now, such as end the war in Iraq.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:40:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How much have you studied of Pakistan? (none / 0)

To say that Obama is destabilizing Pakistan is to demonstrate a poor understanding of the recent history of and current situation in Pakistan.

Pakistan, a nuclear state since 1972 (announcing it had a nuclear weapon in 1998), has been a destabilized state since its inception.  It has been at nearly constant war with India since its founding.  The last major battle was in 1999 (it was known as the Kargil conflict.  After which, Gen. Pervez Musharaff seized power.

There has been major tension between the many citizens of Pakistan who believe in democratic government.  In fact, Musharaff's only support base was among the military, which was a very popular institution to be sure.  But lack of freedoms gets to any community.  There is also a major al-Qaeda, Taliban and war lord presence in the NW corner of the country.  All the above has created vast tension and serious legitimacy issues for the government of Pakistan.  

Obama had nothing to do with it. Dictators will use whatever they can to cling to legitimacy.  The proof that neither the policy nor Obama's insistence on said policy are destabilizing Pakistan is that the country has not exploded into violence.  Despite the assaination of the opposition leader and the election of the opposition party to lead the nation, it has not yet descended into into significant violence.

Al-qaeda and the Taliban are still around.  While they are not a significant threat to destroy our nation, they remain a threat to our people.  Any effort to destroy them is justified and was accepted by the nations of the world on September 28, 2001 when the Security Council passed a resolution in support of the U.S.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:08:56 AM EST

Re: Is Obama Concerned About Destabilizing Pakista (none / 0)

Do you have the remotest notion of what you are talking about?  This is a complex issue but Obama's position is arguably sound.  The problem is that the civilian majority coalition is even less inclined than Musharraf to deal with the jihadists in the NWFP.  There is no way we are going to discuss this sensibly without rehashing Pakistani political history going back two decades.

The point is that Pakistan is receiving enormous amounts of US money and has been consistently duplicitous in it's policy towards our terrorist enemies.  Shall we go the full Monty on this?  We are going to end up talking about Afghanistan, Kashmir, India, Iraq and Iran, the ISI and the Muttahida Majlis Amal, Jamaat-Ulema-Islam and Jammaat-e-Islam in some detail.  Not to mention some horrific choices made by decision makers going back to the coup by Zia and extending through every administration including Clinton's.  There are no innocent actors in this, and Pakistan is clearly our biggest security threat in the region if not the world.  To identify Obama's lucid comments on our current situation as somehow part of the problem is hard to accept.


by Shaun Appleby on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:21:25 AM EST

OK, explain it to me (none / 0)

When you say Obama's position is sound, I assume you are talking about his position that it is advisable for him to speak publicly of his intention to strike in Pakistan given actionable intelligence, with or without Pakistani support.  Because that's what my diary is about.

But if that's what you're saying, I'm not following your answer.  I don't see any discussion of the value of speaking out publicly on the matter.  My thesis is that statements of intention to take military action within the borders of a foreign country tend to be taken seriously and shouldn't be made without good reason.


by Trickster on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:28:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK, explain it to me (none / 0)

Oh the one that had no effect on the either the internal dynamic in Pakistan nor the U.S. relationship with Pakistan.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:41:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK, explain it to me (none / 0)

Yes, that's what I am saying.  This is chess, not checkers, you may have noticed that shortly after he was roundly condemned for these remarks the other candidates, and Bush, quietly affirmed this policy.  We have embarked on increased Predator attacks since without the co-operation of the Pakistan.  I'm not sure that is a great idea but there it is.

The point is that Obama is putting the Pakistani's on notice that the long period of letting things drift in our relationship is likely to end.  That's an important start.


by Shaun Appleby on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:46:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How much? (none / 0)

More than you studied of what I wrote in this diary, that's for sure.  Read the diary, come back and talk about things I actually wrote instead of wild charges I didn't make, and maybe we'll go somewhere.

What I'm saying here is that aggressive statements by American Presidents or prominent candidates cause ripples in foreign politics.  Obama's previous statements have already served Musharraf by providing him with justification fodder for his repression.  I question the need of providing more, when there are ways to express your foreign policies without specifying specific military actions against specific nations.

Speaking of such matters has been known to have consequences, and that's not really a controversial subject in Foggy Bottom.  What would be controversial would be to pretend otherwise.


by Trickster on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:23:21 AM EST

Reply to nklein above (none / 0)

oops.


by Trickster on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How much? (none / 0)

Demonstrate that speaking of it publicly has had an effect on Pakistan in any way and I will agree with you, but you have only mentioned that Musharaff cited it when he issued his "state of emergency" proclamation.  A tyrant's word on why he/she does something is never trustworthy.  Provide evidence of your claim and then I will believe you.  

You don't have any such evidence, do you? The caution of Foggy Bottom does not demonstrate the harm of an action.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:48:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The war in Iraq is pointless. (none / 0)

Pointless in the sense that it has no useful point to it.

The same is quickly becoming true of the war in Afghanistan.  It used to have a point.  The point was killing Osama Bin Laden and the people behind 9/11.  But they have moved on, so we are basically just squatting in case he comes back.  The people of Afghanistan were never any threat to us.  They are basically living in the Stone Age.

The only military activity that IS NOT POINTLESS would be one that kills Osama Bin Laden and his top lieutenants.  And I don't mean the wannabes in IRaq.  

Therefore, going after Bin Laden inside Pakistan is eminently sensible.  It certainly makes more sense than occupying two countries that don't directly relate to American security in any way, absent Osama Bin Laden's being there.

If we can get him, let's get him.  Then we can pull our troops out of the Middle East and Afghanistan, pat ourselves on the back, and move on with our lives.

How easily we forget the real point of all this happy horseshit "War on Terror."  Even today, a lot of people on the left will say the war in Iraq is bad (it is), but the war in Afghanistan is good, without connecting that thought to the issue of whether or not we can get Bin Laden.  Occupying Afghanistan without vigorously targeting Bin Laden in Pakistan makes a mockery of the whole idea of Afghanistan occupation.

And, by the way, isn't this the third diary (first one on the front page) that totally glosses over the distinction between "Foreign Policy Realism" (traditional, normal Democratic think-tank foreign policy), which is what Obama was referencing in the quote above, and "Neoconservatism?  When Obama says that he is a Realist (capital R) in the tradition of Reagan, Kennedy, and Bush Sr. (you somehow forgot Kennedy was in that list), you take his statement out of context and distort it.  And you display a sad ignorance of the history of the neocon takeover of our foreign policy, which is what he was clearly referencing.

Reading assignment for the ill-informed: Rise of the Vulcans: The Rise of Bush's War Cabinet by Mann.


by Dumbo on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 05:47:43 AM EST

Oops... (none / 0)

I thought this was a front page diary.  Oh well.

Found a nice article on Salon, though, that explains matters better than I have:

America needs realists, not William Kristol

If the New York Times wants true diversity on its Op-Ed pages, it should hire foreign policy realists, not ideologues.

By Stephen M. Walt

[...]What's missing in America's mainstream media is the voice of realism. As the label implies, realists think foreign policy should be based on the world as it really is, rather than what we might like it to be. Realists see international politics as an inherently competitive realm where states constantly compete for advantage and where security is often precarious. But realists understand that being overly alarmist and aggressive can get states into just as much trouble as being excessively trusting or complacent. So realists keep a keen eye on the balance of power, but they oppose squandering blood or treasure on needless military buildups, ideological crusades, or foolish foreign wars. Realists cherish America's commitment to democracy and individual liberty, but they know that ideals alone are no basis for conducting foreign policy. They also understand that endless overseas adventures will inevitably provoke a hostile backlash abroad and eventually force us to compromise our freedoms here at home.

[...]

The exclusion of realism is surprising for three reasons. First, realists enjoyed distinguished positions in the American foreign policy community in the past and remain a respected group today. Prominent statesmen whose views generally reflected a realist approach include the late George Kennan, Henry Kissinger, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Colin Powell, Richard Haass and Brent Scowcroft, as well as politicians like outgoing Sen. Chuck Hagel and current Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. To give a realist regular space on a major Op-Ed page is hardly like hiring a Maoist, a Scientologist or a die-hard World Federalist.

Second, realists are an important constituency in the academic world. Realism is still the dominant paradigm in the academic study of international politics, and the writings of realist scholars like E.H. Carr, Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth Waltz have cast a long and lasting shadow over the academic landscape. One would think editors and publishers would be eager to hire someone whose views reflected that distinguished intellectual tradition.

Third, realism's track record as a guide to foreign policy is quite impressive, especially when compared to the neocons' catalog of blunders. Morgenthau, Waltz and Kennan were among the first to recognize that the Vietnam War was a foolish diversion of American power, and Waltz was one of the few foreign policy experts who understood the Soviet Union was a Potemkin colossus with feet of clay. When assorted hawks were sounding frantic alarms about Soviet dominance in the late 1970s, Waltz was writing that the real issue was whether the Soviets could hope to keep up with the far wealthier and more powerful United States. The 1980s proved they couldn't, and that Waltz and his fellow realists had been essentially correct.

Realism has done rather well since. Liberals and neoconservatives greeted the end of the Cold War by proclaiming the "end of history" and imagining a long era of peaceful American hegemony, but realists foresaw that the end of the Cold War would unleash new forms of security competition and produce new tensions within existing alliances. And when both hawks and doves foresaw a difficult and bloody battle in the 1990-91 Gulf War, realist scholars like Barry Posen of MIT and John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago wrote articles that correctly predicted America's easy victory.

Most important, realists were among the most visible opponents to America's more recent misadventure in Iraq. In September 2002, for example, 33 international security scholars paid for an ad in the New York Times declaring "War With Iraq Is Not in the U.S. National Interest." About half of the signatories were prominent realists, and several others wrote articles before the war explaining why it was unnecessary and unwise. By contrast, it was the neocons who conceived and promoted the Iraq war, while many prominent liberals endorsed it. Surely Americans deserve to hear from a perspective that has been an accurate guide to recent events, instead of relying on pundits who have been consistently wrong.

A realist would provide readers with insights that have been largely absent from mainstream discussion for a decade or more. Realism emphasizes that states defend their interests vigorously and that successful diplomacy requires give-and-take; that advancing our own interests often requires us to do business with regimes whose values we find objectionable; that nationalism is a powerful force and most societies resist when outsiders try to tell them how to run their own affairs; that global institutions can be useful tools of statecraft but require great power support to work effectively; and that even well-intentioned democracies sometimes do foolish and cruel things. Most important of all, a realist would emphasize that military force is a blunt and costly instrument whose ultimate effects are unpredictable, and that it should be employed only when vital interests are at stake...


by Dumbo on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 06:03:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's be clear. (none / 0)

Perv was talking about declaring a state of emergency because he was worried about losing his grip on power.  If you recall, that's exactly what happened when Parliamentary elections were held; his PML-Q was handily defeated by the PPP/PML-N.  

Believing that Obama had the slightest bit to do with the subsequent events betrays an immense amount of ignorance about Pakistani politics.


by Ramo on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 10:15:42 AM EST

Re: Is Obama Concerned About Destabilizing Pakista (none / 0)

I did not buy this argument back then and I still do not buy it.

Just because Musharraf's government uses something as an excuse does not mean we should be troubled.  Of course they would prefer the Bush approach where we basically let Pakistan have us by the balls.  If we don't feel they're cooperating like they should, there's no shame in making that clear.

The much-ballyhooed claims that Obama's statements touched off "riots" in Pakistan turned out to be phony.  There were a few right-wing groups that organized demonstrations, but big deal.

I tend to agree that edgy issues like this are best dealt with in private.  But when our private Pakistan policy isn't achieving results, there's nothing wrong with sending a more public message.  And politically, Obama is doing what he needs to do.  I don't really see the harm in it.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 12:25:15 PM EST


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